General election latest: Minister hangs up on Sky's Sam Coates after being told poll has predicted he'll lose his seat (2024)

Nick Thomas-Symonds is a shadow minister for Labour.

He is asked by Sophy about the major victory estimated for Sir Keir Starmer by YouGov today.

Mr Thomas-Symonds says: "Not a single vote has been cast in this general election - it hasn't been cast by post, and obviously no votes will be cast on the day until 4 July.

"Now, of course we are confident - but we are most certainly not complacent.

"I've been out all day today, my colleagues are out in their own constituencies and around the country.

"And we will continue to fight hard for every single vote until the close of polls at 10pm on 4 July.

"We will never take the voters for granted."

Grant Shapps says a vote for Reform is a vote for Keir Starmer.

The Tory minister's comments come after Nigel Farage announced he was standing for parliament a little earlier today.

The only possible outcomes on 5 July are either Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak become prime minister, Mr Shapps says.

On backing Reform, he says the party's voters would only end up with the Labour leader "being handed more power to do things you really don't want him to do with this country".

One of the cabinet ministers predicted to lose his seat by today's YouGov poll is Grant Shapps.

Speaking to Sophy Ridge, Mr Shapps says he has "always thought of it as being marginal".

Mr Shapps was the MP for Welwyn Hatfield before parliament was dissolved, and is contesting the seat again.

He says that polling in his seat that took place recently had him down as winning it.

But Mr Shapps deploys one of the most well-worn of political phrases - that "the only poll that matters is the one on election day".

But he admits knowing it is one that is oft deployed, saying he is trying not to sound "too much like a politician".

Mr Shapps is asked about what happened earlier, when he rang Sky deputy political editorSam Coateslive on air.

The defence secretary says he was presented with an "opportunity to go live on air" that "was not entirely planned" - but was pleased to "come on anyway" once Sophy's show began.

You can watch the earlier moment below:

Before hearing from Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, a reminder of what Labour had to say about his brief today.

Sir Keir Starmer said he would be prepared to deploy nuclear weapons if needed to defend the UK.

The Labour leader said thenuclear deterrent programmeis "vital" to the UK's defence so "of course" he would be prepared to use it.

He would not go into detail about what circ*mstances would require him to take that sort of action if he became prime minister.

But his comments show his determination to demonstrate Labour as a "changed party" from when it was led byJeremy Corbyn- a life-long opponent of nuclear weapons.

Read more from our political reporter Faye Brown:

Election analyst Michael Thrasher says YouGov's poll is "pretty grim reading" for the Tories.

The Conservatives are predicted to lose huge numbers of seats, with their lowest vote share ever.

Professor Thrasher says "31 days to save the Conservative Party" is now the brief for Rishi Sunak, and the message he needs to use to rally his MPs and party members.

The Tories are "facing annihilation" if the polls don't change.

But "Sunak's message just isn't cutting through to the electorate," says Thrasher.

"They have to come out with a positive message, and they have to work on converting people who are thinking of voting for these small parties (like Reform) into reverting to the Conservatives."

Nigel Farage standing in Clacton will "concentrate the minds" of Conservatives to erode the base of Reform, he says.

As for Labour, "they don't have to do anything really".

A "safe pair of hands" message looks like being enough to win with the polls as they are.

Nigel Farage today announced he was standing to be an MP in Clacton - his eighth attempt at running for parliament.

Our chief political correspondent Jon Craig has dug out the seven other times Mr Farage has tried to get a seat in Westminster.

The first was in Eastleigh in 1994, then Salisbury in 1997, Bexhill and Battle in 2001, South Thanet in 2005, Bromley and Chislehurst in the 2006 by-election, Buckingham in 2010 and South Thanet in 2015.

He lost all of them.

Clacton, Essex, where he is competing this time, was previously held by UKIP between 2014 and 2017.

Jon says that Mr Farage has made a "canny" choice by picking the seaside town to stand, as it's the kind of place Reform should expect to do well.

It has a large population of over-65s and not many graduates.

However, the Conservatives do have a majority of close to 25,000 - so it will be a big contest.

The other candidates announced for Clacton are:

• Matthew Bensilum, Liberal Democrats;
• Natasha Osben, Green Party;
• Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, Labour Party;
• Giles Watling, Conservatives.

Our deputy political editor Sam Coates says YouGov is "putting its reputation on the line" with the poll we're discussing tonight.

It's projecting a historic majority for Labour, and a devastating result for the Conservatives and SNP.

So what makes it different to the plethora we've had already?

Well, this one is done with the MRP method.

MRP stands for the somewhat word salad-y "Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification".

In simple terms, this is how it works:

• YouGov asks lots of people, across the country, how they intend to vote. It also asks them questions about who they are so they can paint a picture of the voter;
• The pollsters use these pictures to know which characteristics match with someone voting a certain way - this is the regression bit;
• YouGov then combines this with a second piece of information it has - a breakdown of all the constituencies and the kinds of people who live in each one;
• These portraits of how people vote - based on where they live, gender, age and many other factors - are matched with the descriptions of all the different constituencies to produce an estimate for how each seat intends to vote. This is the stratification;
  
• From there, YouGov provides the estimate of how the general election could turn out.
  

A huge number of people are asked for their opinions to build up the pictures used in MRP, which makes it more representative.

It's why tonight's poll has Tory MPs quite so nervous - and you can watch Sam break it down in full below:

Two huge stories from the world of British politics this afternoon will be the focus of tonight'sPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridge.

If you need a catch-up before we dive into an hour of interviews and analysis, we've got you covered.

First our deputy political editor Sam Coates reports on Labour's possible historic landslide, with a YouGov poll projecting a 194-seat majority.

It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Sam says some Tory MPs are "panicking" about this poll tonight.

And then there's Nigel Farage.

Our political reporter Jennifer Scott has the latest on his decision to run for parliament again - two weeks after saying he wouldn't.

He's also become leader of Reform UK, replacing Richard Tice.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgeis live now on Sky News.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Sophy will be hearing fromDefence Secretary Grant Shappsto offer the Tories' response to Labour's commitment to the UK's nuclear deterrent earlier today.

For Labour, we'll hear fromshadow ministerNick Thomas-Symonds.

And we'll also get the thoughts ofSky News' election analyst Professor Michael Trasheron a landmark YouGov poll predicting a huge Labour majority and crushing Tory wipeout at the election.

On Sophy's panel tonight are:

• Chris Wilkins, former director of strategy for Theresa May;
• Theo Bertram, ex-adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgefrom Monday to Thursday on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgewill be live on Sky News from 7pm.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Sophy will be hearing from Defence Secretary Grant Shapps to offer the Tories' response to Labour's commitment to the UK's nuclear deterrent earlier today.

For Labour, we'll hear from shadow minister Nick Thomas-Symonds.

And we'll also get the thoughts of Sky News' election analyst Professor Michael Trasher on a landmark YouGov poll predicting a huge Labour majority and crushing Tory wipeout at the election.

On Sophy's panel tonight are:

• Chris Wilkins, former director of strategy for Theresa May;
• Theo Bertram, ex-adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hubfrom 7pm every night during the election campaign on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.